Online-Workshop on Short Term Renewable Energy Forecasting

The Chair of Energy Economics at the Brandenburg University of Technology is organizing an Online-Workshop on Short Term Renewable Energy Forecasting, scheduled for 10.12.2020 (10:00-15:00).

Confirmed speakers include:

  • Prof. Dr. Oliver Grothe, Department of Analytics and Statistics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
  • Prof. Dr. Gernot Müller, Chair for Computational Statistics and Data Analysis at University of Augsburg
  • Dr. Sven F. Crone, Department of Management Science, Lancaster University Management School, UK
  • Dominik Beinert, Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology
  • Dr. Dragana Nikodinoska, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg
  • Dr. Mathias Käso, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg

The workshop will be divided into two parts: best industry practices (applied focus) and methodologies (theoretical focus).

Please refer to the workshop program for further details.

Prof. Müsgens as an expert in the Bundestag Committee for Economics and Energy

On November 16, 2020, Prof. Müsgens was invited to the public hearing of the Bundestag Committee for Economic Affairs and Energy to comment on the federal government's draft law to amend the Bundesbedarfsplangesetz.

With the planned amendment to the law, the federal government wants to ensure an acceleration of the recorded planning and approval procedures for network expansion projects at the high-voltage transmission network level.

The written statement of Prof. Müsgens and a recording of the event can be found here.

Presentation at the 40th International Symposium on Forecasting

From Oct 25 - Nov 5, 2020, the 40th International Symposium on Forecasting took place virtually. As part of this online conference, Dr. Dragana Nikodinoska had the opportunity to give a talk about “Short-term Wind and Solar Power Generation Forecasts using Elastic Net in Time-Varying Forecast Combination” during the Session on Renewable Energy.

Research results on market design from the Academies’ project ESYS have been published

The energy transition is progressing, but the electricity market design is lagging behind. With the shift towards climate-friendly alternatives in transportation and heating, the demand for green electricity is growing. In this context, the promotion of wind and solar energy as well as the efforts to expand the grid are not enough. The academy project “Energy Systems of the Future” (in German „Energiesysteme der Zukunft“), in which Prof. Müsgens and Prof. Hartmut Weyer (Clausthal University of Technology) lead the working group “Electricity Market Design”, presents two proposals for a new market design that promotes sector coupling and effectively manages network congestion.

The statement "Pricing CO2, restructuring taxes and side payments" poses the question how a stronger integration of the electricity, heating and transport sectors can contribute to the greening of the overall system. Prof. Müsgens explains: “If the income from CO2 pricing is used to reduce taxes and levies that burden low-emission electricity generation, a twofold benefit can be achieved. First, the CO2 pricing corrects the externality of greenhouse gas emissions, which also means that climate-friendly technologies benefit. Second, it generates an income that can be used to relieve the burden of companies facing international competition and private households."

The final presentation on the topic "Pricing CO2, restructuring taxes and side payments" can be found under the following Youtube-Link.

The full statements can be found under the following links (available only in German):

Press coverage:

Outstanding research outreach

The research paper ‘Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy’ recently published by the Chair of Energy Economics in collaboration with international colleagues in Nature Energy received an outstanding public attention. The findings discussed in the paper were mentioned by more than 115 international news outlets, as well as by 383 tweets from 317 users, with an upper bound of 1,166,650 followers.

We are very happy to know that the paper ranks as one of the highest-scoring outputs from the Nature Energy journal (#2 of 1,038); as well as that such public attention scores in 99th percentile of all research outputs of the same age. ⚡

Best paper award

The chair of energy economics is happy to announce that the paper Regret analysis of investment decisions under uncertainty in an integrated energy system’ by Thomas Möbius and Iegor Riepin was honored with a best paper award at the 17th International Conference on the European Energy Market 2020 (EEM20). Out of 135 excellent contributions, the paper was chosen by a scientific committee of the EEM20 and rewarded with the 3rd prize.

The conference took place from 16.09. - 18.09.2020 and was organized by Professor Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh from the KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm.

Articel published in Nature Energy

Felix Müsgens and Iegor Riepin just published an article on „Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy” in Nature Energy. After 18 month of research collaboration with an international team of scientists, we are excited to share our results.

The article analyses the results of 17 auctions for offshore wind energy in five European countries with a total of 41 accepted wind farms. As the auction designs vary considerably over time and between countries, the results were harmonized and converted into an average revenue per MWhel.

Our results suggest that we are approaching a subsidy-free era for offshore wind. Furthermore, we spot the first offshore wind farms that not only can be operated without subsidies but will probably even pay money back over lifetime for the right to produce electricity, i.e. receive "negative subsidies".

(Selected) Media coverage :

You can find the complete article here.  Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy, Nature Energy, 2020. A free access version is available on the following link: (read only).

Project kick-off „Kopernikus Project Ariadne”

On July 03, 2020, the virtual kick-off meeting for the project „Ariadne-Evidence-based Assessment for Shaping the German Energy Transition” took place.

Ariadne aims to improve policy and decision-making through an evidence-based assessment, which will provide the scientific basis for shaping the German energy transition. In addition to the BTU Cottbus-Senftenberg, 25 project partners are involved in the project.

The project is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research as part of the funding priority „Kopernikus-Projekte für die Energiewende”.

Web link to Kopernikus-Project Ariadne:

Lecture in the Energy Economics Research Seminar: "Sector coupled energy systems for Germany - The effect of ten percent uncertainty"

The Chair of Energy Economics cordially invites you to a presentation in the Energy Economics Research Seminar in Winter Semester 2019/2020 entitled: 

"Sector coupled energy systems for Germany - The effect of ten percent uncertainty"

by Lukas Nacken, Research Assistant at the Chair of Integrated Energy Systems, University of Kassel.

The event will take place on Tuesday, 21th January from 15.30 pm in in room 2.28, building 3E.

All those who are interested are welcome to attend.

Commentary by Prof. Müsgens in the magazine e/m/w: We need a new market design

A commentary by Prof. Müsgens with the title "Die Zeit ist reif für ein neues Marktdesign" has been published in the magazine e/m/w. The commentary can be found at the following link.

Prize for best presentation at the Pre-conference for young scientists at the 12th German Russian Raw materials conference

Ms. Dr. Dragana Nikodinoska was awarded a prize for best presentation in the Session: “Energy and Digital Technologies in Sustainable Development” at the Pre-conference for young scientists as part of the 12th German Russian Raw materials conference (held 27-29.11.2019 in Saint Petersburg, Russia). At the conference she gave a talk about "Dynamic Forecast Combinations of Photovoltaic Feed-in".

Talk at the FDP parliamentary group

In November 2019 Prof. Felix Müsgens was invited to the Energy Fraction Forum of the FDP parliamentary group. The discussion focused on questions about trends in energy systems and energy policy. Topics of particular interest included the actual impact of carbon pricing and electricity and carbon taxes on CO2 reductions. Furthermore, the members of the Bundestag of the FDP parliamentary group were interested in the way of the energy transition recommended by the scientific community. "It's great that politics is interested in our scientific work!" - commented Prof. Felix Müsgens in his Linkedin-post. The Department of Energy Economics and Prof. Felix Müsgens thank the MdB Prof. Martin Neumann for the invitation. 

Digital, decentralized, international? The energy system of the future

Im November 2019 war Prof. Felix Müsgens als Co-Leiter der AG Strommarktdesign innerhalb des Akademienprojekts „Energiesysteme der Zukunft“ (ESYS) Podiumsteilnehmer bei der Jahresveranstaltung 2019. Die im Berliner Futurium ausgerichtete Diskussion drehte sich vor allem um Fragestellungen zur Digitalisierung und Flexibilität eines künftigen treibhausgasneutralen Energiesystems. Zusammen mit Jutta Hanson (Technische Universität Darmstadt) und  Christoph Mayer (OFFIS – Institut für Informatik) diskutierte Prof. Müsgens entsprechende Herausforderungen, u. a. auch das möglichst effiziente Management von Engpässen im Stromnetz. Die gute Nachricht: Da erneuerbare Energien zunehmend wettbewerbsfähig werden, können sie verstärkt in den Bereichen Wärme und Verkehr eingesetzt werden. Um diese Sektorenkopplung weiter voranzubringen, müssten alle Energieträger in einen offenen Wettbewerb miteinander treten. Die im Klimapaket der Bundesregierung beschlossene CO2-Bepreisung sollte dafür das zentrale Instrument sein.

Further information about the event can be found here.

Source Image: acatech/Ausserhofer

Lecture in the Energy Economics Research Seminar: "On optimal distributed frequency control in power systems"

The Chair of Energy Economics cordially invites you to a presentation in the Energy Economics Research Seminar in Winter Semester 2019/2020 entitled: 

"On optimal distributed frequency control in power systems"

by Prof. Dr.-Ing. Johannes Schiffer, Head of Group Control Systems and Network Control Technology, BTU Cottbus-Senftenberg.

The event will take place on Tuesday, 26th November from 13.45 pm in in room 2.28, building 3E. The lecture will be held in German.

All those who are interested are welcome to attend.

Workshop on hybrid modeling of energy systems

On 12.11.2019, the workshop "Hybrid Modeling of Energy Systems" was held successfully in Karlsruhe. The workshop was jointly organized by the Chair of Energy Economics at BTU and the Chair of Analytics and Statistics at KIT within the framework of the project "ProKoMo - Better Price Forecasting in the Energy Industry by Combining Fundamental and Stochastic Models". The workshop addressed central issues of the mechanisms of short-term price generation and forecast.

Following speakers gave lectures addressing central issues of the mechanisms of short-term price generation and forecast:

  • Dr. Dogan Keles, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
  • Dr. Christian Pape, Vattenfall Energy Trading GmbH
  • M.Sc. Heike Scheben, University of Stuttgart
  • Dr. Ricardo Mariense Wickert, Metalogic Software GmbH
  • Prof. Dr. Florian Ziel, University of Duisburg-Essen

Information and experiences of scientists and professionals have been exchanged. At a final panel discussion, Prof. Dr. Oliver Grothe and Prof. Dr. Felix Müsgens have summarized the workshop and invited participants for an open discussion.

Beiratstreffen „DecarbLau“

Im November 2019 fand das erste Beiratstreffen zum Projekt „Mobilisierung endogener Entwicklungspotential für den Strukturwandel – Dekarbonisierung einer Braunkohleregion“ (DecarbLau) statt. Im Rahmen dieser Veranstaltung stellte Herr Daniel Scholz erste Ergebnisse des Teilprojektes des Fachgebietes Energiewirtschaft einem interessierten Publikum vor. Herr Scholz präsentierte eine Metaanalyse zu Strompreis- und Arbeitsplatzeffekten eines politisch induzierten Kohleausstiegs. Eine Zusammenfassung der wichtigsten Erkenntnisse bietet der folgende Policy Brief.

Presentations at the 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)

From 18 to 20 September, the 16th Euopean Energy Market Conference (EEM) took place in Ljubljana (Slovenia). As part of this conference, Ms. Taimyra Batz Lineiro and Mr. Daniel Scholz each had the opportunity to give a talk. Ms. Batz Lineiro spoke about the paper "A first analysis of the photovoltaic auction program in Germany", which presents a first analysis of the German photovoltaic auctions. Mr. Scholz presented the paper "Price and Employment Effects triggered by a German Coal Phase-Out – A Discourse Analysis", which provides a meta-analysis on price effects due to a German coal exit.

Acceptance in the Viadrina mentoring program for Postdoctoral female researchers

Ms. Dr. Dragana Nikodinowska was accepted for the 2019/2020 Viadrina mentoring program for Postdoctoral female researchers. Also in this year, the committee had received a large number of qualified applications and the selection process for the limited number of spots was intensive. The program aims to support networking activities within the scientific community and to impart knowledge about requirements, conditions, structures and proceedings in the German-speaking scientific community. Moreover, it offers the opportunity to improve your overall key qualifications and to strengthen competent and convincing performance in English and German speaking surroundings.

Kommentar zu den Beschlüssen des Klimakabinetts

Am 20. September veröffentlichte das Klimakabinett seine Pläne zur Neugestaltung der deutschen Klimapolitik. Anbei eine kurze Einschätzung von Hr. Prof. Müsgens:

Positiv hervorzuheben sind drei Aspekte:

  • Erstens der Einstieg in die Bepreisung der non-EU-ETS Sektoren. Dieses zentrale Element wird auch direkt am Anfang des Eckpunktepapiers der Bundesregierung platziert (Ziff. 1).
  • Zweitens folgt im direkten Anschluss (Ziff. 2) die Entlastung der Bürger durch den Abbau von Verzerrungen im Stromsektor, insbesondere bei der EEG-Umlage. In Kombination wird durch diese beiden Maßnahmen eine doppelte Dividende1erzielt: bessere Adressierung der Klimaexternalität, effizientere Sektorenkopplung im ‚level playing field‘.
  • Drittens ist das klare Bekenntnis der Bundesregierung zu begrüßen, „sich für einen europaweiten übergreifenden Zertifikatehandel für alle Sektoren“ einzusetzen.

Das folgende Sammelsurium einzelner Maßnahmen (insgesamt 63 weitere Punkte) dagegen verursacht hohe Kosten bei unklarem Beitrag zum Klimaschutz.

Angesichts von mehreren hunderttausend Menschen, die heute in Deutschland und anderen Ländern für wirksamen Klimaschutz demonstriert haben, hätte man sich insgesamt mehr Mut und klarere Kommunikation gewünscht: Klimaschutz ist auch mit Kosten verbunden. Insbesondere im Hinblick auf die Höhe der CO2-Preise erscheint es zumindest fraglich, ob mit den geplanten Preisen (z.B. 10 €/t CO2 im Jahr 2021, 35 €/t im Jahr 2025) die Einsparziele der Bundesregierung erreicht werden. Hier wäre mehr Vertrauen in dieses für den Klimaschutz zentrale Instrument angebracht. Bei höheren Preisen bestünde (als zweiter Teil der doppelten Dividende) gleichzeitig auch mehr Raum zum Abbau von Verzerrungen bei der EEG-Umlage. 0,25 €-Cent/kWh (im Jahr 2021) erscheinen bei einer EEG Umlage von aktuell 6,4 €-Cent/kWh eher symbolisch. In diesen Bereichen wird also Potential verschenkt. Dennoch: Der Anfang ist gemacht.

Medienecho: SOLARIFY - 'Klimaprogramm 2030 – Reaktionen aus der Wissenschaft'

1 Diese Vorgehensweise entspricht der Argumentation des Impulses „Über eine CO2-Bepreisung zur Sektorenkopplung: Ein neues Marktdesign für die Energiewende“, der im Rahmen des Akademienprojektes esys erarbeitet wurde.

Wissenschaftliches Hintergrundgespräch im Deutschen Bundestag

Klimaschädliches Treibhausgase brauchen einen Preis – darin sind sich Wissenschaft, Wirtschaft, Zivilgesellschaft und Politik weitgehend einig. Welche Vor- und Nachteile bieten die verschiedenen Optionen zur Einführung eines CO2-Preises, welche Lösung nützt dem Klimaschutz am meisten? Wie können die bestehenden Verzerrungen abgebaut und eine stärkere Sektorenkopplung gefördert werden? Und wie sollten die Einnahmen aus der CO2-Bepreisung verwendet werden?

Darüber diskutierten am 05. September 2019 wissenschaftliche Referenten des Akademienprojekts „Energiesysteme der Zukunft“ (ESYS) mit Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeitern von Mitgliedern des Deutschen Bundestages (MdBs) sowie Fraktionsreferentinnen und –referenten bei der Veranstaltung „Energie.Wende.Punkte.“ im Deutschen Bundestag. Ziel war es, fundiertes Wissen zu aktuellen Themen der Energiepolitik und Energiewirtschaft bereitzustellen und Umsetzungsmöglichkeiten zu diskutieren.

Ein wirksamer, sektorenübergreifender CO2-Preis ist ein erster Schritt zu einem unverfälschten Wettbewerb zwischen allen Energieträgern. Doch gleichzeitig müsste vor allem Strom entlastet werden, damit er mit Erdgas, Heizöl, Benzin und Diesel konkurrieren kann. Sebastian Kreuz, wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Lehrstuhl für Energiewirtschaft an der Brandenburgischen Technischen Universität Cottbus-Senftenberg, sprach sich dafür aus, die Einnahmen aus der CO2-Bepreisung zu nutzen, um das Steuer- und Umlagensystem umzugestalten. Würde man zum Beispiel die EEG-Umlage senken, würden Verzerrungen im System abgebaut und die Kosten für Haushalte sinken – so könnte eine „doppelte Dividende“ erzielt werden.

Weitere Informationen unter

Realizing sector coupling by pricing carbon: A new market design for the energy transition

On September 3rd, Prof. Müsgens presented preliminary results of a study on CO2 pricing options and the reorganization of the German energy price system to the press and the public in Berlin.

The working group "Electricity Market Design", which is headed by Prof. Müsgens together with Prof. Hartmut Weyer (TU Clausthal) and is organized within the project "Energy Systems of the Future" (ESYS) supported by three Academies of Science, created a study titles "Realizing sector coupling by pricing carbon: A new market design for the energy transition" (German: “Über eine CO2-Bepreisung zur Sektorenkopplung: Ein neues Marktdesign für die Energiewende”). In this study, concrete options for a uniform and comprehensive CO2 emission pricing system are presented.

Furthermore, the study focuses on the reduction of existing market distortions, in particular in the electricity sector. These necessary reductions can be financed and incentivized by revenues coming from the introduction of a CO2 emission price. Thus, it is possible to achieve a double dividend from the proposed reform.

Together with Prof. Christoph M. Schmidt (RWI, Chairman of the German Council of Experts) and Prof. Andreas Löschel (University of Münster, Chairman of the Expert Commission on the Monitoring Process "Energy of the Future"), the necessity of a reform was discussed in a talk with Dr. Ing. Axel Bree (Head of Division "Industrial Policy Aspects of Energy Supply, Energy Taxation, Ecodesign" at the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy), in particular with regard to an undistorted competition of different energy resources. Taking into account the climate policy goals, such competition could incentivize the application of sector coupling.

In a second panel, Prof. Müsgens, discussed the acceptance, distribution and the international perspective of pricing greenhouse gases together with Brigitte Knopf (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, MCC), Ortwin Renn (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, IASS) and Philipp Wendel (Federal Foreign Office). It became clear that an energy price reform should on the one hand cushion social hardships. On the other hand, the scientists emphasized that public acceptance of the energy transition will certainly remain, if the greenhouse gas reduction targets are achieved as efficient and cheap as possible.

Further information (only available in German):

Impulspapier: Über eine CO2-Bepreisung zur Sektorenkopplung: Ein neues Marktdesign für die Energiewende

In the media:

Contribution to the EPRG Working Paper Series at the University of Cambridge

The paper "Seasonal Flexibility in the European Gas Market" written by Iegor Riepin and Felix Müsgens was published in the Working Paper Series of the Energy Policy Research Group at the University of Cambridge. The paper is available for download.

Appointment to the advisory board of the OTC platform Tender365

Since June 2019 Mr. Müsgens has been supporting the OTC platform Tender365 as advisory board. "By working as an advisor, I combine my scientific focus with empirical experience and thus actively contribute to the design of new digital solutions for the energy industry" says Prof. Dr. Müsgens. (link:
Tender365  is a digital marketplace for energy products and OTC trading founded in September 2018.

Presentations at the 3rd Annual Meeting of the Research Network "Energy Systems Analysis"

On May 23 and 24, 2019, the third annual meeting of the Research Network "Energy Systems Analysis" took place, which was organized by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) and the project management Jülich (PtJ). The Department of Energy Economics was able to contribute to this event with the organisation of a workshop entitled "Improving Forecasts through Hybrid Approaches in Science and Practice". In the workshop, the results of the research projects ProKoMo and FOCCSI were presented by Mr. Möbius and Mr. Käso (for more information see Further topic-related presentations from practice and science were held by Mrs. Gronau from 50Hertz and Mr. Schönheit from TU Dresden.

The research projects FOCCSI and ProKoMo are funded by the BMWi on the basis of the 6th Energy Research Program.

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