In the present subproject the ecological processes in their different life stages and the dispersal of the species are modelled and the population dynamic simulated for the next 60 years. Changing climatic conditions and land use measures are dynamically integrated into the models. In this way they influence the species-specific ecological processes as well as the spatial distribution, structure and composition of suitable habitats. The models are used to analyse the long-term survival probability of the project species under different climate and land use scenarios. They thus support the development of suitable conservation strategies for these species.