In an interview with MDR Prof. Müsgens comments on the effects of the gas shortage on the electricity and heat availability in Bavaria and east Germany.
While the gas situation is still stable, additional system stress could materialize in winter exposing Germany to an energy crisis.
You can read the full article here.
The Chair of Energy Economics is pleased to announce that on 19.07.22 our external PhD student Thorsten Engelhorn has successfully defended his dissertation "On the value of the wind's infeed and the costs of capacity built-up: a bottom-up modelling for the German market" . We wish Dr. Engelhorn all the best for his upcoming tasks and a successful career.
Some highlights from the publication “What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?” include:
- Combining methodologies (hybrid models) achieve the lowest errors.
- ML models do not show a robust performance but have the fastest improvement.
- Using data processing techniques reduces forecast errors.
- Forecast horizon and test set length positively correlate with forecast errors.
- The possibility of “cherry picking” in reporting errors is observed.
You can find the article here
The chair of Energy Economics is pleased to announce that on 23.06.22 our colleague Iegor Riepin succesfully defended his PhD Thesis "Modeling challenges of modern energy markets: studies on uncertainty, complexity, and constant change". We wish Dr. Riepin all the best for his upcoming work commitments and a successful career.
Some highlights from the publication “Policy choices and outcomes for offshore wind auctions globally” published in Energy Policy include:
- Global stock-taking of offshore wind auctions through statistical analysis.
- Auctions expected to dominate procurement in future, with estimated share of 97%.
- Describing auction designs and outcomes for most of the 53.4 GW auctioned to date.
- Auction designs show a wide range of policy choices, embedded in regional contexts.
- Revenue stabilisation is a key procurement feature, especially in nascent markets.
You can find the article here
The paper, "How CO2 Prices Accelerate Decarbonisation - the Case of Coal-Fired Generation in Germany", compares two types of coal phase-out instruments. Namely i) direct regulatory intervention and ii) market-based CO2 pricing instruments.
Some highlights are:
1. rising CO2 prices can make coal-fired generation unprofitable and thus accelerate the coal phase-out.
2. CO2 pricing instruments lead to a trade-off between accelerating the coal phase-out and accelerating the employment reduction in the coal sector.
You can find the article here
Within the framework of the Brandenburg Energy Day at the BTU cottbus, ZEIT ONLINE reported on the uncertain future of the Schwedt oil refinery in the face of a halt of Russian oil imports. In the same line, Prof. Müsgens commented that the situation with Russia will further increase energy prices for end-consumers and a short-term moratorium on the phase-out of coal-fired plants should be considered.
At the Energy Day of the State of Brandenburg at the BTU in Cottbus, Brandenburg's Energy Minister Jörg Steinbach, Jürgen Fuchs (Chairman of the Board of BASF Schwarzheide), Rüdiger Kuhn (Chairman of the Board of CEMEX), Olaf Höhn (Managing Director Florida Eis Manufaktur), Prof. Dr Felix Muesgens (BTU Cottbus-Senftenberg) and LEAG board member Thorsten Kramer on ways to transform Brandenburg's economy in a climate-friendly way - while ensuring security of supply and moving away from Russian gas and oil imports.
The Chair of Energy Economics at BTU Cottbus-Senftenberg and the Institute of Operations Research at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology are organising a workshop on the topics of fundamental and stochastic analyses of energy systems, data quality and hybrid forecasts on energy markets. For this, we explicitly aim on an exchange between industry and research.
The workshop will take place online on 13 May 2022.
Participation is free of charge. WHowever, we ask for registration by 04.05.22 at: thomas.moebius(at)b-tu.de. Further information can be found at pro-ko-mo.de.
The workshop is organised by the project "ProKoMo - Better price forecasts in the energy sector by combining fundamental and stochastic models" funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate within the framework of the Research Network Energy System Analysis.
In an interview for Märkische Allgemeine (MAZ) Prof. Müsgens discusses the dependency of Germany and Europe on Russian gas and oil, the future of lignite and the possibilities of saving energy.
In his opinion, regarding the expansion of sanctions against Russia, the West should focus on the issue of oil, since Russian revenues from oil exports are three times as high as those from gas exports. Also, Germany would more easily cope with a supply stop of Russian oil than a stop on gas supply.
The chair of Energy economics is pleased to inform that on the 21.02.2022 Dr. Sebastian Kreuz succesfully defended his Doctoral dissertation on “Five Studies on Recent Topics in Energy Economics”. We wish him a fruitful career and all the luck in future professional endeavors.
In an interview with rbb, Prof. Müsgens discusses the implications of the Ukrainian war for the German electricity system. Due to the high dependancy of Germany on Russian gas imports problems from increased prices to system security. Greater presures will be met in the short-term, and Germany needs to adress solutions and alternatives to face next winter.
See the full video on our YouTube channel and also on the rbb website.
In an interview for the Deutsche Presse-Agentur (Die Zeit newspaper), Prof. Felix Muesgens explains how an earlier coal phase-out is possible. He talks about the market conditions and political requirements necessary for this.
You can find the article here
In an interview with ntv, Prof. Felix Müsgens comments on Germany's coal phase-out policy and its feasibility, taking into account market flexibility options and plans to expand renewables.
You can read the full article here
The rbb reports on the newly converted gas fired power plant in Cottbus and the effects of high gas prices on electricity prices. In the video, Prof. Müsgens explains why gas prices have gone so high up and the expectetions in the short and long term.
Some highlights from the publication “Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations” include:
- The used methodology (dynamic elastic net) combined with advanced, professional forecasts yields low errors (benchmarked extensively against the literature)
- Dynamic data preprocessing is an important step deserving more attention (and transparency)
- Forecast quality increased greatly over time
- New research should analyze other regions and systems
You can find the article here
rbb reports on the power blackout that left tens of thousands of households in Oberspreewald Lausitz and Spree-Neiße without electricity for more than 24 hours. In the video, Prof. Müsgens comments on questions of the security of the electricity system and the trade-off between system costs and reliability.
In this study, the authors present an algorithm to overcome data limitations regarding the publication of individual bid information by combining four publicly available databases. The algorithm is applied to the German solar auction programme allowing the evaluation of auctions using quantitative methods. They calculate realisation rates and—using correlation and regression analysis—explore the impact of PV module prices, competition, and project and developer characteristics on project realisation and bid values. The results confirm that the German auctions were effective. The authors also found that project realisation took, on average, 1.5 years (with 28% of projects finished late and incurring a financial penalty), nearly half of projects changed location before completion (again, incurring a financial penalty) and small and inexperienced developers could successfully participate in auctions.
You can find the article here
Prof. Felix Müsgens will hold a presentation about the energy transition and its effects on the Lausitz area at the event organized by the Technical University of Berlin. The presentation will take a place online on 23th of November from 17:30 to 19:00. You can access the session then via this Link and here you can find the complete program.
In cooperation with the Department of Analytics and Statistics at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the Chair of Energy Economics organized the Summer School 'Forecasts within Energy Markets', which took place in Karlsruhe from 27.09.2021 to 01.10.2021.
During the five-day intensive course, participants from academia and industry learned various forecasting techniques from different scientific areas. These included fundamental market modelling, agent-based modelling, probabilistic and density forecasting, machine learning algorithms and forecast evaluation.
In addition to Prof. Felix Müsgens, the speakers included Prof. Oliver Grothe (KIT), Prof. Anke Weidlich (University of Freiburg), Prof. Fabian Krüger (KIT), and Dr. Mario Hörig (Oliver Wyman Actuarial Services).
Prof. Müsgens appears on rbb discussing the future of coal power plants in the Lausitz region
Berlin-Brandenburg Broadcasting(rbb) has invited Prof. Felix Müsgens to speak in their reportage covering the future of coal energy in the region of Lausitz east of Germany. Prof. Müsgens explains his view in the video that coal powers plants are expected to retire even before the stated political deadlines, due to economic factors and market conditions. Here you can access the video on the chair's youtube channel and also on rbb's website.
Prof. Felix Müsguns was interviewed by Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung in their article covering sustainable living. In particular, he explained tenant electricity arrangements and their advantages and how tenants can be engaged in the energy transition. Here you can access the complete article.
We are glad to announce that our research assistant and Ph.D. candidate Thi Ngoc Nguyen has won Artur-Woll prize. Ms. Nguyen was awarded as the best master’s degree graduate at the Faculty of Economic Disciplines at Siegen University for the year 2020/2021. This comes as an acknowledgment of her outstanding performance among her peers in exams as well as in her thesis. Artur-Woll prize was first introduced in 1994 to recognize top graduates in the field of economics at Siegen University. We wish Ms. Nguyen further success in her engagement at our chair.
On July 08, 2021, a digital kick-off meeting for TransHyDE project was held between all participating institutions, companies and stakeholders. TransHyDE is one of three hydrogen lead projects that are a central contribution of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) to the implementation of the National Hydrogen Strategy. These projects represent the largest funding initiative ever undertaken by the Federal Ministry of Research on the subject of the energy transition. They provide a decisive input for Germany's entry into the hydrogen economy.
TransHyDE will perform and assess system analysis of transport solutions for green hydrogen for Europe in the global scale. The department of Energy Economics at BTU, represented by Prof. Felix Müsgens will contribute to the project at many levels and mainly by analyzing the potentials and costs of H2 imports at the EU border.
You can read more about the Hydrogen Projects on the Federal Ministry of Education and Research website here
Structural change in the energy industry in Lusatia
On June 30, 2021, Prof. Felix Müsgens discussed the new opportunities arising from the energy transition and structural change in the Lausatia region in a presentation for jalta.consultants e.V.
The energy transition aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In the process, the energy system is being changed from the ground up. Generation from centralized large-scale power plants using fossil fuels is being replaced by decentralized plants that produce electricity depending on the weather. Lusatia, with its focus on electricity generation, is particularly affected by this development. In this context, the presentation discusses the new academic and economic opportunities for students and entrepreneurs.
You can access the presentation here
Using a stylized electricity market model, the authors analyze market equilibria under different levels of renwable energy. In the short-term the merit order effect is unambiguously negative: adding RES lowers prices. However, in the long-term, the merit order effect is zero – assuming base load remains in the system and competition is perfect.
The paper was mainly written while Prof. Müsgens was visiting professor at UBC Sauder School of Business, hosted by his co-author Werner Werner Antweiler.
you can find the paper here.
Is the coal phase-out coming sooner than expected?
The news outlet RBB reports on LEAG's decision to adjust its plans for the coal phase-out in Cottbus. The company plans to produce even less coal than expected, which could lead to an earlier exit. Prof. Müsgens comments on this decision and talks about the difficulties for coal-fired power plants to remain profitable at current and projected energy prices.
You can access the news hier.
The authors focus on seasonal demand swings in the European natural gas market. They quantify the role of different flexibility options (domestic production, gas storage, and pipeline and LNG imports) that are used to cover European demand fluctuations. This work contributes to the existing literature on seasonal flexibility by addressing the problem with a mathematical gas market optimization model. The paper provides valuable empirical insights into the decline of gas production in northwestern Europe. Furthermore, the authors propose a new metric to quantify the importance of supply sources for seasonal flexibility provision.
You can find the article here: The Energy Journal, Vol. 43, No. 1. 2022. An executive summary is available on this link. The applied GAMS code and associated input data are available in a public GitHub repository.
Why is Germany’s energy transition so expensive?
This is the question Thorsten Engelhorn and Prof. Müsgens answer in their latest paper "Why is Germany’s energy transition so expensive? Quantifying the costs of wind-energy decentralization" published in Resource and Energy Economics.
Some of their conclusions include:
- Variations in (annual average) wind speeds are high even within countries.
- One argument in favor of building a strong transmission grid for electricity: it allows using the best wind sites.
- In the period from 2000 to 2015, the same annual amount of electricity from wind energy in Germany could have been produced at lower costs for turbines (saving up to 30%), lower land use (saving also up to 30%) and significantly less installed turbines (up to 40% less).
You can read the full paper here (Free of charge for the next 50 days)
Prof. Felix Müsgens is one of 21 renowned scientists appointed by 50Hertz to its Scientific Advisory & Project Board (SAPB)
The "Scientific Advisory & Project Board" was established to provide 50Hertz with innovative solutions for a greenhouse gas-neutral future in an interdisciplinary manner and work on them in concrete research and development projects.
The boeard has started to work and discuss the topics of energy scenarios and system security during their workshops. The members of the board hope to dwelve into these topics further in the coming months, provide expertise and recommendations for 50Hertz’s different specialist departments through joint interdisciplinary research and development projects.
The research paper ‘Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy’ recently published by the Chair of Energy Economics in collaboration with international colleagues in Nature Energy received an outstanding public attention. The findings discussed in the paper were mentioned by more than 115 international news outlets, as well as by 383 tweets from 317 users, with an upper bound of 1,166,650 followers.
We are very happy to know that the paper ranks as one of the highest-scoring outputs from the Nature Energy journal (#2 of 1,038); as well as that such public attention scores in 99th percentile of all research outputs of the same age. ⚡
The chair of energy economics is happy to announce that the paper ‘Regret analysis of investment decisions under uncertainty in an integrated energy system’ by Thomas Möbius and Iegor Riepin was honored with a best paper award at the 17th International Conference on the European Energy Market 2020 (EEM20). Out of 135 excellent contributions, the paper was chosen by a scientific committee of the EEM20 and rewarded with the 3rd prize.
The conference took place from 16.09. - 18.09.2020 and was organized by Professor Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh from the KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm.
Felix Müsgens and Iegor Riepin just published an article on „Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy” in Nature Energy. After 18 month of research collaboration with an international team of scientists, we are excited to share our results.
The article analyses the results of 17 auctions for offshore wind energy in five European countries with a total of 41 accepted wind farms. As the auction designs vary considerably over time and between countries, the results were harmonized and converted into an average revenue per MWhel.
Our results suggest that we are approaching a subsidy-free era for offshore wind. Furthermore, we spot the first offshore wind farms that not only can be operated without subsidies but will probably even pay money back over lifetime for the right to produce electricity, i.e. receive "negative subsidies".
(Selected) Media coverage :
- Invited guest post at CarbonBrief
- Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
- The Telegraph
- The York Press
- Science Daily
- The Guardian
- Imperial College London
- BTU News
You can find the complete article here. Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy, Nature Energy, 2020. A free access version is available on the following link: https://rdcu.be/b5R42 (read only).