Correction and combination methods for forecasting to improve system integration of renewable energies (FOCCSI)
Cooperation and Funding: Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy
The project FOCCSI (Forecast Optimisation by Correction and Combination methods for System Integration) is a three-year research project funded by the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy. It pursues the improvement of energy-related forecasts, such as the prediction of generated wind energy, over all time horizons. It thus contributes to the system integration of renewable energies into existing energy systems at the national and international levels. Therefore, better forecasts indirectly contribute to the achievement of the fundamental energy transition goals: They reduce dependence on energy imports, ensure affordable energy costs and make an important contribution to solving global climate problems.
Precise forecasts for the feed-in of fluctuating renewable energies and current electricity prices are key elements to the planning and control of power generation, grid operation and commercialization of electricity. The project FOCCSI is devoted to the research of efficient methods for predicting highly dynamic forecast variables, such as wind energy or electricity prices. The central research aspect is the development of statistical methods for the correction and combination of forecasts, which are used to generate superior meta-forecasts. Due to the generality of the investigated methods, they are also interesting for further applications.